*Antifragility: The Only Way to Survive in an Uncertain World* (by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, translated by Toshio Chiba, Diamond Inc., 2017) is a book that offers a new perspective called “antifragility”—a way of thinking that allows us not only to overcome uncertainty and unpredictable events but also to grow and benefit from them. The author, Taleb, is the researcher who introduced the concept of “unpredictable risks” in *The Black Swan*. In this book, he takes the discussion a step further and explores methodologies for harnessing those risks. “Fragile” “robust,” and “antifragile”—he proposes concrete approaches ranging from daily life to business and even national decision-making. Since these three concepts are not widely known, they are briefly explained below: Fragile: A property that is weak against external shocks or changes, and easily collapses or sustains damage. A glass cup is “fragile” because it breaks easily when dropped on the floor. In the case of a company, one that often sees its performance deteriorate rapidly and ultimately goes bankrupt due to major economic crises or unforeseeable events (such as natural disasters or pandemics) can be described as “fragile.” Robust / Resilient: The property of being able to withstand external shocks. While it does not break or suffer significant impact from shocks, it does not necessarily produce particularly good results. A metal cup is “robust” because it does not break even when dropped on the floor. In the context of businesses, this refers to companies that possess a certain degree of resilience against economic crises. For example, this applies to companies in industries with stable revenues that are less susceptible to major impacts. Antifragile: The property of using external shocks or changes to achieve growth or improvement. It is not merely about not breaking; rather, uncertainty and stress serve as catalysts for growth. Muscles are “antifragile” because they actually become stronger when subjected to a kind of “load” through training. In the business world, companies that use shocking events like pandemics or economic crises as catalysts to develop new business models or tap into new markets—thereby improving their performance—can be described as “antifragile.” The author points out that modern society’s excessive pursuit of stability has, paradoxically, made it vulnerable to risk. He explains that while the banking system has a fragile structure, entities like startups—which embrace risk and leverage change—are antifragile. The method the author recommends for achieving anti-fragility is the “barbell strategy.” This is a method of turning random factors and uncertainty into profit by concentrating investments at both ends of the spectrum: safe assets and high-risk, high-return assets. While this is commonly practiced in the contexts of asset management and corporate management, how does it apply at the micro level—such as in your own career planning or your children’s education? When was the last time you failed, and what did you learn from that experience? It’s also interesting to consider the same question at the macro level of national policy design.
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